How right we were.
Every resolved call is scored against what actually happened — held, early, or wrong — and the score is published whichever way it lands. The hits are here because they were earned. The misses are here because an analyst who only publishes their hits is selling something.
The rule: when a front resolves, the call it carried is marked HELD, EARLY, or WRONG against the observed outcome. Every score is published here within one brief cycle. Nothing is quietly edited, and no call is removed once it has shipped — which is what makes the HELD column mean anything.
Why EARLY is its own category: a call that describes the right mechanism on the wrong timeline is not the same failure as a call that read the situation backwards. Conflating them hides which kind of mistake we actually make.
What this page is not: a list of typos or source corrections. Those are handled inline on the page where they occurred. This ledger covers analytic judgment only — assessments, forecasts, and posture reads, scored on whether they survived contact with events.
Resolved calls that held.
No resolved call has been scored yet in the current coverage period. This page ships empty rather than shipping invented entries — a fabricated track record is worse than no track record at all.
To populate: for each front carrying a green CALL RESOLVED chip on the board, score the call it held against the outcome. HELD entries go in this section; EARLY and WRONG entries go in section 02. Both use the template in the page source.
And the ones we got wrong.
Scored EARLY when the mechanism was right and the timeline wrong; WRONG when the read itself was backwards. Neither is deleted.
Nothing scored EARLY or WRONG yet. When it happens it appears here, not in a footnote.