The long-form work, on the record.

Iran stopped claiming the strait is shut and started claiming it is governed. A permissioning regime is cheaper to hold than a closure and works at nine transits a day.

The only pipeline that moves Gulf crude to a non-Gulf port is running flat out, and its terminal now sits inside a declared embargo zone. Every bypass has a maximum; this one is an engineering number.

The 15 JUL call named a date and held. What the gilt market repriced was not the man but the fiscal direction.

RESOLVED · CALL HELD · BURNHAM PM BY ~JUL 20, AS PUBLISHED 15 JUL

Published as fragmented control holding for 60 days. The sustained-direct-war branch of the disproof fired on day eight. Shown as written.

RESOLVED · DISPROOF FIRED 23 JUL 2026 · LOGGED ON RECORD

The 08 Jul read forecast the framework would survive; the record now shows the strait closed for days and the US blockade restored, so that forecast is withdrawn. It changed when the disproof condition, a return to direct strikes, fired.

Net reserves hit a record and the IMF review cleared while the war ran. But the buffer was rebuilt on remittances and returning portfolio money as the trade account worsened, Israeli gas stayed cut, and Suez never recovered. The call: reserve gains stall or reverse if Hormuz reopening slips past Q3. Watch the monthly reserve and Suez revenue prints.

In the May data China ranked fourth by monthly bilateral deficit, behind Vietnam, Mexico, and Taiwan. Tariffs did not shrink the gap; they moved it, and the concentration risk moved with it toward the Taiwan Strait. Built on Census and BEA data, counter-case stated.

Tankers hit in the strait, CENTCOM answering across dozens of targets, Iranian counterfire on Gulf bases, and both capitals still citing MoU articles at each other. The read: every target priced for leverage, not war. The forecast that the framework would survive fired its own disproof when the strait closed for days.

RESOLVED · DISPROOF FIRED 13 JUL 2026 · CORRECTED ON RECORD

Two hundred fifty years in, the audit runs on the hard lines: carrier availability, the debt stack, interest payments against the defense budget, the ratings sweep, and the dollar's reserve share. Counter-cases stated where they exist. What holds, what is eroding, and which lines to watch.

Before enrichment can be negotiated, inspectors have to get in. The dispute over IAEA access to the bombed sites became the binding constraint on the 60-day window, ahead of the enrichment question the war was fought over. An advancing read on the 24 JUN roadmap call.

The ceasefire binds its signatories and nobody else. Two of the four actors in this war never signed, and Lebanon is the first place the gap shows. How to read any agreement by who actually holds the pen.

SUBJECT AGREEMENT COLLAPSED JUL 2026 · RETAINED AS STRUCTURAL REFERENCE

A 60-day roadmap reopened Hormuz toll-free and lifted oil sanctions, but Washington and Tehran give opposite accounts of IAEA inspector access. Without verified monitoring of the bombed sites, the window is a pause, not a settlement.

RESOLVED · DISPROOF FIRED 13 JUL 2026 · LOGGED ON RECORD

A fifth of global oil moves through a corridor the IRGC re-declared closed while CENTCOM reports traffic transiting unhindered. How the strait actually works, who can close it, and what re-routing would cost.

Ukraine's strikes on depots and air defenses forced a halt to civilian fuel sales on the peninsula. A read on the campaign as logistics attrition, and the indicator that would show it working or stalling.

Coast-guard incursions at Pratas and Itu Aba rehearse control through presence, not force. Confidence MODERATE; watch indicator is days-per-month of presence inside the 24nm line.

The artery between the Indian and Pacific oceans, and the single point of leverage in any Pacific contingency. No substitute route exists at scale; the dilemma defines a decade of planning.

Transits remain far below the 2023 norm. The strait is not shut; it is unreliable, and unreliability reprices the Suez route every week. The mechanics of a chokepoint that bleeds rather than breaks.